I disagree with many aspects of David Ndii's current role in President Ruto's government. However, his March 2016 article "Kenya is a cruel marriage, it's time we talk divorce" identified something fundamental about East Africa's structural challenges that deserves serious reconsideration.
East Africa today faces the same pressures that historically
drove European tribal coalitions to eventually form successful nation-states:
artificial boundaries imposed by external powers, persistent ethnic divisions,
resource competition, and increasingly authoritarian governance that stifles
natural political evolution. The region's current borders, drawn by colonial
administrators with no regard for ethnic or geographical realities, have
created a powder keg of tensions that Kenya's Ruto, Uganda's Museveni
and Tanzania's Suluhu Hassan are only making
worse.
East Africa's Colonial Straightjacket Prevents Natural
Evolution
The fundamental problem facing East Africa is that colonial
borders have frozen political development at an artificial stage, preventing
the natural evolution that created successful European nations. European
countries formed through centuries of tribal warfare, followed by defensive
coalitions. France emerged when Frankish tribes united against Roman threats,
England when Anglo-Saxon kingdoms faced Viking invasions, and Germany when
Germanic tribes confronted Magyar attacks. This organic process created
natural boundaries along rivers, mountains, and coastlines that reflected both
strategic necessity and cultural affinity.
East Africa never experienced this natural consolidation.
Instead, colonial powers deliberately drew borders to divide ethnic groups
and prevent strong indigenous states from emerging. The Maasai were split
between Kenya and Tanzania, the Somali scattered across five territories, and
dozens of other ethnic groups were arbitrarily divided. Unlike European tribes that
fought, then united against common threats, East African peoples were forced
into artificial configurations designed to facilitate colonial control.
The result is that East Africa remains trapped in what
amounts to Europe's medieval tribal stage; ethnic groups compete for control of
artificially constructed states rather than forming natural coalitions based on
shared interests and common threats. Kenya's recurring electoral violence along
ethnic lines, Uganda's north-south divisions, and Tanzania's growing religious
tensions all reflect this fundamental problem.
The Yugoslav Parallel: A Warning Worth Heeding
Ndii's most compelling argument invoked Yugoslavia as a
cautionary tale. "After 70 years of a failed nationalist project,
former Yugoslavia's decade-long genocidal wars claimed over 140,000 lives and
displaced over 4 million people. To what end? The country still broke up - balkanised to be specific, into six successful ethnic nations."
The parallels between East Africa and former Yugoslavia are
indeed striking:
Artificial Unity: Both Yugoslavia and East African
states were created by external powers combining different ethnic groups with
distinct languages, religions, and historical experiences. Yugoslavia was
assembled after World War I from the remnants of empires, while East African
borders were drawn by British and German colonial administrators.
Ethnic Competition: Just as Yugoslavia struggled to
manage Serbs, Croats, Slovenes, and other groups, East Africa's states contain
dozens of ethnic communities competing for political control and economic
resources rather than developing shared national identity.
Authoritarian Decay: Yugoslavia's eventual collapse was
preceded by decades of increasingly authoritarian rule as the federal
government struggled to maintain artificial unity. Similarly, East Africa has
seen democracy deteriorate as leaders use state power to suppress ethnic and
regional grievances.
What makes this comparison particularly relevant is
Yugoslavia's ultimate outcome. Despite the traumatic breakup, the successor
states have generally outperformed what unified Yugoslavia might have achieved.
Slovenia became one of Europe's success stories, Croatia transformed into a
prosperous EU member, and even Serbia made significant progress. Each pursued
development strategies suited to their specific circumstances without the
burden of accommodating incompatible ethnic groups.
Growing Authoritarianism Reveals System Failure
The most troubling sign that East Africa's current
arrangements are unsustainable is the region's drift toward authoritarianism.
Leaders are increasingly using state power to suppress the natural centrifugal
forces that artificial borders create, rather than addressing the underlying
problems.
Uganda's Yoweri Museveni exemplifies this authoritarian
drift. In power since 1986, Museveni has systematically dismantled
democratic institutions to maintain control over a country that was artificially
assembled from dozens of distinct ethnic groups. His regime relies on military
force to suppress separatist movements in the north, where the Acholi and other
groups never fully accepted inclusion in the Ugandan state. The brutal
counter-insurgency against the Lord's Resistance Army displaced over 2 million
people.
Museveni's manipulation of the constitution to extend his
rule demonstrates how artificial states require increasingly authoritarian
governance. He removed presidential term limits in 2005, then age limits in
2017, transforming Uganda into a personal dictatorship justified by the need to
maintain "stability", but stability built on suppressing natural
political evolution.
Tanzania under Samia Suluhu Hassan has continued the
authoritarian trajectory begun under John Magufuli. Despite initial
promises of political opening, Hassan's government has maintained restrictions
on opposition activities, press freedom, and civil society. Tanzania's
authoritarianism reflects the same underlying problem - the need to suppress
ethnic and religious tensions that artificial colonial borders created.
The country's forced unity between mainland Tanganyika and
the island of Zanzibar exemplifies these artificial arrangements. Zanzibar's
distinct Arab-Swahili culture, Islamic identity, and island geography create
natural centrifugal pressures that require constant state intervention to
contain. Hassan's continued restrictions on Zanzibari autonomy movements
demonstrate how maintaining artificial unity requires authoritarian control.
Kenya has long styled itself as a bastion of constitutionalism in East Africa, with its 2010 Constitution celebrated as a model of democratic renewal. Yet recent developments under President William Ruto underscore how fragile these gains are, and how quickly the political class can pivot towards authoritarian practices when legitimacy is threatened.
Ruto has also deployed strategic co-optation to weaken resistance. By appointing allies of Raila Odinga to government positions and supporting Raila’s African Union Commission chairmanship bid, he neutralised the most significant opposition figure without conceding any structural reforms. This manoeuvre validated economist David Ndii’s long-standing critique: that Kenya’s ethnic bargaining system is inherently futile, as elites use ethnic grievances to secure patronage rather than to build genuine democratic accountability. What appeared as inclusivity was in fact elite capture, hollowing out institutional opposition while leaving grassroots anger simmering.
In response to mounting dissent, government supporters and sections of the opposition have reverted to ethnic rhetoric. Dangerous stereotypes, grievances, and incitements echo those heard during the 2007–2008 post-election crisis. Narratives of Kikuyu victimhood, Kalenjin entitlement, and Luo exclusion have resurfaced, weaponised once more to delegitimise political opponents. The revival of such tribal antagonisms is especially alarming when juxtaposed against the unifying civic identity demonstrated by Gen Z protesters. The political class appears intent on dragging the country back into the logic of ethnic arithmetic rather than allowing a new multi-ethnic democratic consciousness to flourish.
Ndii's Five Nations Framework Points Toward Natural Solutions
Ndii's analysis of Kenya's potential dissolution into five
distinct nations reflects recognition that East Africa's peoples would be
better served by political arrangements that acknowledge rather than suppress
their diversity.
The Coast Nation possesses what Ndii called "all
the important building blocks of a successful nation — a common language, a
long political history and cultural heritage, a deep sense of a shared identity
as 'watu wa pwani', and grievance." With its 500km coastline and
maritime economic zone, the region has tremendous untapped potential currently
constrained by forced inclusion in a highland-dominated state.
The Luo Nation represents what Ndii termed the
greatest sacrifice for Kenyan nationalism. "No other nation has
sacrificed so much for so little in the name of Kenya project." An
independent Luoland could channel its considerable human capital and political
energy internally rather than in futile national competitions that regularly
end in ethnic violence.
The Mt Kenya Nation comprises ten counties with about
the same population and land area as Switzerland. Despite being landlocked,
this region already demonstrates strong entrepreneurial capabilities and could
potentially thrive as an independent highland state focused on agriculture,
manufacturing, and services.
The Kalenjin/Rift Valley Nation emerges from Ndii's
recognition of ongoing ethnic tensions and resource competition. The region's
agricultural potential and pastoral traditions could flourish without the
burden of subsidizing other regions or competing for control of Nairobi.
The Somali Nation of North-Eastern Kenya "never
wanted to be part of it in the first place." From the Shifta war to
recent security operations, this region has suffered more than any other for
forced inclusion in the Kenyan state.
Broader East African Reorganization Could Follow Natural
Lines
Kenya's potential reorganization points toward broader
possibilities for reshaping East Africa along more natural ethnic and
geographical lines.
A Greater Somalia could unite the Somali regions
currently scattered across Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia proper. This would end
the artificial division of a people with common language, culture, and religion
while potentially providing the political stability that has eluded the current
Somali state.
The Great Lakes region might be better served by
arrangements that acknowledge the Bantu-Nilotic cultural divide rather than
forcing these groups into the same states. The persistent conflicts in eastern
Congo, northern Uganda, and parts of Tanzania all reflect this fundamental
ethnic incompatibility.
Coastal East Africa from Mombasa to Dar es Salaam
shares Swahili culture, Islamic influence, and maritime orientation that
distinguishes it from the inland highlands. A Swahili coastal confederation
could leverage these natural advantages without the burden of highland political
domination.
The Ethiopian model, despite its current problems,
demonstrates that ethnic federalism can acknowledge diversity while maintaining
larger economic units. Ethiopia's constitution explicitly recognizes ethnic
groups' right to self-determination up to and including secession—a
principle that East Africa might adopt more broadly.
Learning from European Evolution
Europe's historical experience demonstrates that political
arrangements must eventually align with ethnic and geographical realities or
face violent collapse. The Holy Roman Empire's 800-year struggle to maintain
artificial unity across Germanic tribes ultimately failed, leading to the
natural emergence of German, Austrian, and Swiss nation-states. Similarly,
the Austro-Hungarian Empire's attempt to combine incompatible ethnic groups
collapsed into national successor states that proved far more successful.
The key insight is that successful nations require either
genuine integration - where ethnic identities fade into broader national identity - or
separation into more homogeneous units. East Africa has clearly failed at
genuine integration after six decades of independence. Ethnic voting
patterns remain dominant, cross-ethnic marriage rates stay low, and local
languages retain primacy over national languages. This suggests that Europe's
alternative path - peaceful separation into ethnically coherent units - might be
more appropriate.
Modern examples like Czechoslovakia's "Velvet
Divorce" show how this can be achieved peacefully when leaders prioritize
their peoples' welfare over personal power. The Czech Republic and Slovakia
both prospered after separation, joining NATO and the EU as successful
independent states.
The Yugoslav Warning Applied to East Africa
Ndii's genocide warning deserves serious attention: "They
could have broken up peacefully like the Soviet Union. What are we waiting for,
a genocide?" Yugoslavia's violent collapse demonstrates what happens
when artificial states persist too long under authoritarian rule.
Rather than waiting for Yugoslavia-style collapse, East Africa could learn from peaceful examples like the Soviet Union's dissolution or Czechoslovakia's velvet divorce. This requires acknowledging that colonial borders were mistakes that need correction, not sacred arrangements that must be preserved regardless of human cost.
Conclusion: Natural Evolution or Violent Collapse
East Africa stands at a crossroads. The region can continue
pretending that colonial borders represent legitimate political arrangements
while its authoritarian leaders use increasing state
violence to suppress natural political evolution. Or it can acknowledge that
these artificial constructs have failed and begin the difficult work of
creating more sustainable arrangements.
The European experience shows that political arrangements
must eventually align with ethnic and geographical realities. France
emerged when Frankish tribes united against external threats; it would have
collapsed if external powers had instead forced Franks, Visigoths, and
Burgundians into an artificial confederation under foreign rule.
David Ndii's "cruel marriage" thesis, whatever one
thinks of his current political affiliations, identified this fundamental
challenge facing not just Kenya but all of East Africa. The Yugoslav
precedent suggests that sometimes, allowing natural nations to govern
themselves produces better outcomes than forcing incompatible groups to remain
together under increasingly authoritarian rule.
Perhaps it's time to seriously consider whether East Africa's various peoples might not be better served by going their separate ways, just as the peoples of Yugoslavia ultimately were. The alternative—waiting for violent collapse while leaders like Ruto, Museveni, and Hassan deepen authoritarianism and ethnic manipulation—serves no one's interests except the dictators who benefit from the current dysfunction.
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